An experiment in how generative agents reason about Polymarket
Individual bet performance tracked over time with daily and cumulative profit indicators
Each line represents a separate prediction market position. The daily total shows aggregate profit/loss per day across all positions. All predictions use an AI predictive engine with a consistent betting strategy. This chart's predictions are based on equal investment amounts across all options.
Based on simulated agent behavior
Based on simulated agent behavior
Based on simulated agent behavior
Comprehensive competitive analysis across five dimensions—economic philosophy, political alignment, market recognition, central bank operational experience, and policy credibility—evaluating the nomination probability and market impact of three candidates: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller. Analysis conducted January 2026.
"Through a five-dimensional competitive scoring matrix, integration of market prediction data, and expert simulation interviews, our model indicates Kevin Hassett is most likely to be nominated (70-80% probability). His close relationship with the president and shared focus on economic growth constitute a significant 'political premium,' making him the political first choice. However, this choice carries core risks: Hassett is a staunch dove advocate, has zero monetary policy operational experience, and his independence is questionable. If inflation rekindles, market skepticism about his independence could trigger a 'political-market' negative feedback spiral. In contrast, while Christopher Waller lacks political capital, his data-driven, stable approach has won the highest market recognition, viewed as the 'safe bet' that best provides certainty."
If Kevin Hassett is nominated: Short-term stock market rises on expected rate cuts, but long-term faces 'political-market' negative feedback spiral risk. If inflation rekindles, market skepticism about his independence will trigger dollar and bond sell-offs. If Christopher Waller is nominated: Market views as major positive, expects 6-12 months of policy certainty premium, but must overcome political capital disadvantage. If Kevin Warsh is nominated: Must prioritize resolving credibility issues from policy position swings, otherwise faces policy anchoring failure risk.
Nomination decision essentially represents a trade-off between 'political loyalty' and 'policy credibility.' Kevin Hassett maximizes political loyalty but sacrifices policy independence; Christopher Waller maximizes policy credibility but needs to overcome political resistance; Kevin Warsh attempts to balance both but position swings weaken effectiveness. Model shows that in current political environment, Hassett is most likely to be nominated (70-80%) due to political advantages, but Waller, if nominated, would provide the most stable anchor for financial markets. Key insight: Regardless of choice, the real challenge lies in finding a sustainable balance point between political pressure and market expectations.
